Roger Morris
Recent activity
Comments (3)
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Comment on: Severn barrage flooding 'disaster'
I'm sorry to hear that micro-generation is chocolate teapot territory. Agreed, there are limits, but there are big questions about the sense in grids that absorb up to 30% of output just carrying the load. I assume micro-nukes as used in subs andAC carriers are also teapot country? The one thing that we must face up to is that the days of cheap energy are numbered and so we need to think across abroad suite of solutions. As to the suggestion that what has happened in one estuary cannot be applied to another, I'm afraid that is only true if the morphology is based on different sediment reilience. So, yes it is correct that La Rance is not a good analogue for the Severn, but the Eastern Schelde exhibits similar sedimentary characteristics and as such is a valid analogue - see my recent article in Town and Country Planning (Jan 2010) and also the paper I published with Prof. Pethick in the Journal for Nature Conservation. There is also a book chapter in a volume published by Nova publishers. If that is not good at, do take a look at the volume on environmental impacts of barrages edited by Neville Burt - and published by ICE.
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Comment on: Severn barrage flooding 'disaster'
Oh dear! It is interesting to hear that the RSPB is both good at managing wildlife and studying birds, but that they don't have a clue about how birds will respond to barrages. Perhaps the authors above have access to better data than the RSPB. The Dutch (not the RSPB) have estimated losses of 80% of oystercatcher by 2050 in the Eastern Schelde. A 74% decline in the Great Knot population on the Australasian flyway has already been recorded in the past 25 years as a consequence of Korean barrages -presumably the birds have just moved and the major international effort to find them has just been incompetent! The erosion issues raised by the RSPB are recorded as a result of detailed Dutch monitoring and publication in reputable peer-reviewed journals. The Dutch are sufficiently worried to be considering a wide range of solutions, including decommissioning the barrage. Eric van Zanten and Leo Adriaanse of Richswaterstaadt (Dutch Ministry) made the effort to come here to share their experience so perhaps they are at least acting in good faith. Erosion is also something that has been a concern at Annapolis Royal, and there are also other analogues such as reservoirs that help to explain the pathways. These analogues are an entirely valid approach to understanding coastal processes - they form one component of the techniques described by the MAFF-Funded EMPHASYS project which was led by HR Walligford - presumably that consortium was also wrong? It might therefore be as well to wait for the Wallingford outputs to DECC before castigating the information RSPB have helpfully put in the public domain. The key point of all of this debate is not whether the RSPB should be safely ignored, but whether society is prepared to make a series of pretty well irreversible decisions. If we are, then the best test of the predictions will be the real-time model arising from a barrage. Unfortunately, we won't get a second chance if the expertise expressed in previous posts proves to be ill-informed. Also, those who have castigated the voices of concern will not be there to take the criticism if they are wrong. Perhaps the solution to the problem is to reduce consumption, grow a broad suite of micro-generation for local consumption, and build two nukes to provide necessary 24 hour baseload that a severn barrage cannot yield? Big hits such as barrages are precisely that - big hits in all ways, economic, social, environmental and they will inevitably polarise views. But, if we are to solve the problems we face it is not going to help if we fight a perpetual slanging match of engineering versus birds.
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Comment on: Severn Barrage: Not until after 2020
Perhaps those who argue the birds will go elsewhere should look at the Australasian flyway and the impact of barrages and related structures in South Korea. A 74% reduction in wader populations in 25 years is presumably down to their inability to swim! Doubtless those who taise the plight of Saemangeum are "environmental terrorists". If these sorts of projects are to be progressed then it would be helpful to treat people with environmental concerns as legitimate comentators and not "environmental terrorists" - that is the language of the 1980s that simply creates friction and does not establish problem solving.
